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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest upset.

But the latest competition is distinctly different. The group of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners fading and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still